Russian crude oil export patterns may shift again

Russian crude oil export patterns may shift again


According to shipbroker Banchero Costa, in the 12 months of 2019, Russia exported 225.3 mln tonnes of crude oil by sea, as shown by vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents an increase of +6.2 per cent year-on-year, compared to the 212.1 mln tonnes of 2018. 

It said: “There continues to be a reshuffling in the trade patterns. Seaborne exports from Russia to the European Union declined by -3.2% y-o-y to 133.9 mln tonnes in 2019, from 138.3 mln t in 2018. The EU is still by far the largest destination for Russian crude, but now accounts for 59% of total Russia seaborne crude exports, down from 65% in 2018. On the other hand, crude exports from Russia to China surged by +14.6% in 2019 to 29.8 mln tonnes.”

China is the destination for 13 per cent of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports, up from 12 per cent in 2018. South Korea also saw a decline in volumes from Russia last year. It imported 17.5 mln tonnes in 2019, which was -8.9 per cent year-on-year compared to 19.2 mln tonnes in 2018, although it was still higher than the 13.5 mln tonnes in 2017. 

South Korea now accounts for 8 per cent of Russia seaborne exports. Volumes to Japan have been essentially flat at 7.0 mln tonnes, up +0.4 per cent year-on-year. Surprisingly, exports to the USA increased, to 7.4 mln tonnes in 2019, up +45.1 per cent year-on-year. 

Volumes to India surged, by +146.4 per cent year-on-year in 2019 to 6.9 mln tonnes, from just 2.8 mln t in 2018. Shipments with discharge in Turkey also surged by 329 per cent in 2019 to 14.6 mln tonnes from just 3.4 mln tonnes in 2018. 

Of Russia’s total 2019 exports, 91.1 mln tonnes, or 40.4 per cent, was shipped from the Black Sea – almost entirely from Novorossiysk. Shipments from the Black Sea increased by +5.0 per cent year-on-year in 2019.

“But while the pandemic was contained in China and Korea, it is now blowing up in Europe, so we could see these trends reversing in coming months”, Banchero Costa said. 

For more information visit www.bancosta.com

25th March 2020